The front month surged ahead 183 points today on increased volume to settle at 94.06. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s 231 point trading range (91.98 – 94.29).
Concerning the US, indications are mixed with respect to economic data, but any hint from Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellen, post the dissemination of tomorrow’s interest rate decision, that interest rates will rise in the foreseeable future will likely be negative.
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
The front month gave up 102 points today on light volume to settle at 92.23. The settlement was within the lower one half of today’s tight 175 point trading range (92.78 – 93.53).
Although it is far too early to deem this season’s crop as “late”, continued inclement weather over the mid-southern and southeastern regions of the US will likely result in some loss of cotton acreage.
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
The front month and Dec 14 picked up 94 and 77 points on the week, respectively, largely on the continued prospects of very tight US 2013/14 ending stocks. Dec received a hand from weather concerns and a strong Nov soybean contract. Results were on par with the conditional prediction that we put forth at this time last week.
Next week will be report-laden, especially with respect to US economic data. This data will no doubt affect the value of US currency, to some extent at least, and thus the value of commodities in general. This is especially true of cotton as the US is the primary residual supplier to the world and because US cotton is already struggling with competitiveness.
For next week, our directional bias…
The front month picked up 5 points today on light volume to settle at 93.25. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s tight 122 point trading range (92.21 – 93.43). Twenty three delivery notices were issued against the May contract.
Dec 14 is likely to continue to be supported via the same fundamental factors that have buoyed it this week.
For Mon…
The front month picked up 56 points today, post the dissemination of a relatively strong US cotton export report, to settle at 93.20. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s tight 112 point trading range (92.40 – 93.52). No delivery notices were issued against the May contract.
Dec 14 finished today’s trading action at yet another weekly and seasonal high. Although US export sales against the 2014/15 MY, were off significantly W/W, the continued prospect of realizing beginning stocks of near 2.5M bales seems to be continuing to support Dec futures.
For tomorrow, our directional bias is…
