Total net sales of US cotton for the week ending April 17 were reported at 132.8K RBs, much higher than we had expected. Export shipments were reported at 237.5K RBs and sales candellations at 32.6K RBs. Both net sales and shipment figures far exceed the weekly requirements to meet the USDA’s 10.7M bale export projection.
China was the largest taker of US cotton at over 100K RBs.
This data shows, we think, that demand for US cotton (at least from China) exists just north of the 90.00 level.
The front month gave up 61 points today, at one point trading more than 250 points off its daily high, to settle at 92.64. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s 258 point trading range (90.73 – 93.31).
The overall technical sentiment for the front month is now bullish. Again, our thoughts are altered little from the past two days, with respect to market fundamentals…
Dec 14 finished today’s trading action near yesterday’s settlement, after exhibiting early weakness. OI continues to steadily increase against Dec 14, and 83.00 is likely to be the next area of major resistance.
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
The front month surged today, gaining up 104 points to settle at 93.25. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s relatively tight 134 point trading range (92.15 – 93.49).
Dec 14 finished today’s trading action at another seasonal high. OI continues to steadily increase against Dec 14, and 83.00 is likely to be the next area of major resistance.
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
The front month finished near unchanged today, giving up 13 points to settle at 92.21. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s relatively tight 120 point trading range (91.55 – 92.75).
Dec 14 finished today’s trading action at another seasonal high; support today was likely largely due to anticipation of a somewhat bullish weekly crop progress report. This expectation was fulfilled…
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
This week, the front month reclaimed nearly all of last week’s loss, which had previously served as a confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern. Trend support, as well as several other points of technical support, now resides very near the 90.00 level, which the front month has been unable to break for the past three weeks.
With respect to Dec 14, we expected that its upward progression would be mitigated a bit, and it was. Still, it settled the short trading week at weekly and seasonal highs.
For next week, our directional bias…
