The Mar contract gained 181 points last week on strong US export business and ahead of the index fund rolling periods, settling at 74.85. OI contracted significantly in Mar over the past week while the nearby spread showed signs of weakening, both of which suggest that specs were rolling their longs forward.
For this week…
The ICE Mar contract picked up 15 points on Wed, settling at 72.26. The May contract gained 13 points, settling at 72.75 – the net effect leaving the Mar – May spread near unchanged at (49). Volume for Mar delivery slowed at just above 12K lots while Mar OI contracted at approximately 166.7K contracts, and such suggests further spec long liquidation has occurred.
For today…
The bulls won during the first week of 2017; last week it was the bears with the Mar contract giving back 172 points, settling at 72.27. Spreads weakened over the course of the week, but the July – Dec spread remains heavily inverted. The bulk of pressure on the ICE cotton market this week was a result of bearish numbers put forth in the Jan WASDE report.
For this week…
The ICE Mar contract gave up 7 points on Fri, ahead of the long holiday weekend, settling at 72.27 – a 172 point setback on the week. The May contract lost 9 points, settling at 72.76 – the net effect leaving the Mar – May spread near unchanged at (49). Volume for Mar delivery slowed at just below 12K lots while Mar OI contracted at approximately 169.2K contracts.
For tomorrow…
The ICE Mar contract gave up 5 points ahead of the US export and USDA WASDE reports, settling at 73.14. The May contract gained 2 points, settling at 73.66 – the net effect leaving the Mar – May spread weakened at (52). Volume for Mar delivery quickened at around 15.2K lots while Mar OI contracted at approximately 175.2K contracts. Intraday rallies on the front month appeared to be viewed by many participants as opportunities to liquidate long positions.
For tomorrow…
