Dec picked up 22 points today on an inside day to settle at 74.85. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s tight 100 point trading range (74.20 – 75.20).
Technical sentiment for Dec remains bearish, nearly identical to yesterday’s analysis. Today’s settlement was again below the lower Bollinger Band, further evincing the oversold condition of the current market.
For Mon…
Dec has now given up 980 points over the last 38 trading days. Dec should again commence trading action Sun evening well below its 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs.
Technical sentiment for Dec remains bearish, nearly identical to yesterday’s analysis. Fundamentally, the USDA’s annual acreage report is scheduled for release at 12:00 PM, US, EST on Mon, June 30…
For Mon…
Today’s export report was negative for new crop futures; the volume weighted average price over the sales period reported upon today was near 77.00, base Dec, which produced only 24.1K RBs of net sales.
In cotton related news, Bloomberg has released the results of their survey of nine cotton industry analysts and traders, to which we contribute, pertaining to expected planted cotton acreage estimates to be put forth on the upcoming USDA planted acreage report.
For tomorrow…
Dec gave up another 63 points today (305 points over the last three days); post the dissemination of an abysmal US cotton export report, to settle at 74.63. Dec traded down to 73.71, a two year low, before rebounding for the latter half of the day session.
Technical sentiment for Dec remains bearish, but indications that the market is oversold are solidifying.
For tomorrow…
USDA-FAS reported total net sales of 4.6K RBs and total exports of 138.1K RBs against the current MY for the week ending June 19. Sales cancellations were reported at 6.4K RBs.
Total commitments against the current MY now stand at 10.94M statistical bales and exceed the USDA’s 10.5M bale export projection by approximately 4%.
Shipments will need to average approximately 126K RBs over the remaining weeks in the 2013/14 MY to meet the USDA’s target; shipments of approximately 159K RBs per week would meet the USDA’s former 10.7M bale export projection.
Total net sales against the 2014/15 MY were reported at a mere 24.1K RBs and stand at approximately 25% of the USDA’s projected 9.7M bale export projection.
Overall, we view this information as negative for new crop futures; the volume weighted average price over the sales period reported upon today was near 77.00, which produced only 24.1K RBs of net sales against the 2014/15 MY.
