Archive for March, 2014

March 27, 2014 0

Thursday, March 27, 2014 – US Export Report

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Total net sales of US cotton for the week ending March 20 were reported at 79K RBs for the current MY against only 3KRBs of cancellations. Shipments remain strong and were reported at 273.4K RBs for all cotton. Net sales against the 2014/15 MY were off vs last week to 78.6K RBs.

Both sales and shipments exceed the weekly pace requirement to meet the USDA’s 10.7M bale export projection and imply that the US S&D balance sheet could tighten further.

Overall, this is very supportive fundamental news.

March 26, 2014 0

Wednesday, March 26, 2014 – Pre-USDA Cotton Export Report Analysis and Commentary Included

By in Daily Reports

The front month exploded to a new intraday high at 97.35 in the US early morning hours, but stumbled from there, at one point tumbling nearly 300 points over a one minute period, en route to a 245 point loss on the day. The settlement was within the lower one quarter of the front month’s extremely wide 652 point trading range (90.83 – 97.35).

Fundamentally, the US balance sheet is tight and could be interpreted to further tighten tomorrow. However, the technical picture, while still somewhat bullish, is much less so that it was at this same time yesterday.

For tomorrow, our directional bias…

March 25, 2014 0

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

By in Daily Reports

The front month exploded to new intraday high and settlement values for the current bull move post the dissemination of the final USDA cotton ginning update for the 2013 crop. The report confirmed that the 2013 US crop was a bit shorter than most had expected. Further, the front month took out a two year high in today’s trading action. May 14 gained 348 points on the day, settling at 94.11. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of the front month’s 473 point trading range (89.90 – 94.63).

For tomorrow, our directional bias is…

March 25, 2014 0

Monday, March 25 – USDA Ginning Report

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Total final cotton ginning numbers for the US 2013 crop were reported at approximately 12.87M statistical bales, of which 12.23M statistical bales are upland type cotton.

This compares with the USDA’s previous estimate of 13.19M statistical bales and the pre-report expectation range of 12.9M – 13.0M statistical bales.

Although some of this information was likely priced into the market, the implied US ending stocks are now 2.45M bales, less than the final ending stock figure from the 2010/11 MY of 2.6M. Overall, this information should be supportive for both old and new crop futures.

March 25, 2014 0

Monday, March 24, 2014

By in Daily Reports

The front month collapsed today post the dissemination of an announcement from China that CNCRC reserve release initial asking price would be reduced approximately 4%. May 14 lost 268 points on the day, settling at 90.63. The settlement was within the lower one quarter of the front month’s 395 point trading range (89.80 – 93.75).

Despite today’s collapse technical bias for the front month remains bullish. The news out of China that the CNCRC would lower the initial trade bid by approximately 4% sparked today’s selloff.

For tomorrow…

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