Archive for December, 2013

Mar 14 gave up 18 points today to settle at 83.33. The settlement was within the lower one quarter of its tight 82 point trading range (83.03 – 83.85). Volume quickened today with approximately 7.8K and 13.5K contracts traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate, respectively.

Mar 14 has consolidated near the top of its recent uptrend over the last week, trading a weekly range of less than 160 points. The overall technical analysis continues to favor continuation of the current uptrend, although several indicators are now warning of Mar 14’s overbought condition.

For Mon, our directional call for Mar 14 is …

Mar 14 picked up 33 points today on the heels of a larger than expected US export report, to settle at 83.33. The settlement was with the upper one half of its tight 72 point trading range (82.90 – 83.62). Volume slowed today with approximately 6K and 9K contracts traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate, respectively.

The cotton market failed to rally today after dissemination of a very positive US export report by USDA-FAS. Given the perceived tightness of the current US nearby stocks situation, we would have expected a larger intraday price move than was actually realized.

For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is …

Mar 14 picked up 5 points today to settle at 83.00. The settlement was with the upper one half of its tight 70 point trading range (82.50 – 83.20). Volume slowed considerably today for Mar 14 but quickened across all contracts with approximately 6K and 13.9K contracts traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate, respectively.

The release of the US export report, scheduled for 8:30 AM, US EST tomorrow and the effect of anticipated positive US economic data releases tomorrow will most likely set the tone for the day.

For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14…

Mar 14 gave up 43 points for the second today to settle at 82.95. The settlement was with the lower on half of its 108 point trading range (82.64 – 83.72). The front month made a new high for the current uptrend, but could not hold its gain on yesterday’s settlement post mid-morning.

The trading range for Mar 14 was negatively skewed again today, but, unlike yesterday, the close was rather weak. The overall technical analysis continues to favor continuation of the current uptrend, although several indicators are now warning of Mar 14’s overbought condition.

For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is for…

Mar 14 gained 16 points for the second consecutive day to settle at 83.38. The settlement was four points below the top of today’s 108 point trading range (82.34 – 83.42). The front month traded 88 points off its Fri settlement in the early US daylight hours, but retraced to struggle with the 83.00 mark for much of the day after mid-morning, finally finishing strong and making the intraday high during the settlement minute.

We expect that nearby demand and on-call fixation potential have waned, but the persistent tightness of the US nearby stocks situation seems to be buoying the market.

For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is…