ICE Mar futures gave up 38 points this week on tepid US export data, although the latest export report did not pack enough bearish punch to push Mar below the 63.00 level. On a rolling front month basis the Mar contract finished near unchanged, giving up a mere 4 points in Dec. For the year, the front month picked up 437 points.
For next week…
Total net export sales for the week ending Dec 24 were modestly lower vs the previous sales period at approximately 114K running bales while shipments improved significantly to nearly 167K running bales. Both sales and shipments were below the weekly pace required to meet the USDA’s revised 10M bale export target. Sales cancelations were nearly 10K running bales. Total commitments against the new marketing year are now 53% of the USDA’s export projection and new crop sales and shipments will need to average approximately 148K and 234K running bales per week, respectively, in order to meet the target.
This week’s figures are again nothing to get excited about, but they are also not terrible for the holiday season. Although we view the data as less than supportive, we doubt that it will be viewed negatively enough to allow the market to break below its established trading range.
The Mar contract took back yesterday’s 10 points loss, settling at 63.97. The settlement was near the mid-point of today’s extremely tight 36 point trading range. The May contract gained 9 points settling at 64.71, the net effect leaving the Mar – May spread near unchanged at (74). Volume slowed for Mar delivery at just below 6K contracts while Mar OI contracted at approximately 123.5K contracts.
For tomorrow…
