The July contract surged again today, post the dissemination supportive export data from the USDA, but gave back nearly all of its intraday gains, finally settling at 64.35 – a 105 point gain on the week. The settlement was within the lower one half of today’s trading range. Dec gave up 42 points, settling at 64.64, the net effect leaving the July – Dec spread strengthened at (29).
For Mon…
Total net export sales of cotton against the current MY for the week ending May 21 were significantly higher vs the previous week at 138.6K RBs. Sales cancellations were slightly higher at 12.5K RBs. Total export shipments for the period held their recent pace at just above 350K RBs, and remain well ahead of the pace required to meet the USDA’s 10.7M bale export target and its associated 2014/15 and 2015/16 C/O projections. Upland sales against 2015/16 were fair at just below 60K RBs.
Total commitments stand at nearly 103% of the USDA’s export projection. Export shipments will need to average approximately 178K RBs per week in order to hit the target.
Overall, today’s data is supportive and casts further doubt on the USDA’s 10.7M bale US export projection
