The front month gave up just four points on the week while Dec let go of 200 as rains that had begun at this time last week continued on through the holiday weekend.
Total US export commitments now stand at 102% of the USDA’s 10.4M bale export projection and negative net sales of approximately 21K RBs over the next 9 weeks would still allow the USDA’s target to be hit.
For next week…
Dec 14 gave back 91 points on the day to settle at 79.48; Dec opened at its high for the day at 78.32 and posted its intraday low during the post-settlement period.
USDA-FAS reported current MY total net cotton sales of 64.1 RBs (66K statistical bales) for the week ending May 22; total shipments were reported at 228K RBs. Sales cancellations were reported at 1.4K RBs.
For Mon…
We would like to begin by acknowledging a minor error in yesterday’s reporting; July futures gained 128 points D/D on the settlement Thu, May 29 rather than 117 points. The minor error did not affect analytical results.
The front month picked up 12 points on the day to settle at 86.27. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s 128 point trading range (85.41 – 86.69).
Overall, technical sentiment for the front month remains extremely bearish, with indications of the market being much oversold (except money flow) having dissipated.
For Mon…
US cotton exports were down tremendously from last week, but this was expected due to tightness of stocks and the nature of last week’s large sales into China.
USDA-FAS reported total net sales of 64.1K RBs and 228K RBs of export shipments against the current MY. Sales cancellations were reported at a mere 1.4K RBs.
Total commitments against the current MY now exceed the USDA’s 10.4M bale export projection by approximately 2%.
Total net sales against the 2014/15 MY were reported at 116K RBs; total sales against the coming MY now stand at 21% of the USDA’s projected 9.7M bale export projection.
The market has not reacted positively to today’s report, although it has not collapsed. Today’s report infers a further tightening of US stocks and net sales can average (21K) RBs per week for the remainder of the current MY and still meet the USDA’s current export projection while shipments will need to average approximately 130K RBs per week in order to hit the target.
Dec 14 picked up 66 points on the day to settle at 78.38 ahead of the weekly US cotton export report. Today’s trade results were on par with expectations put forth in this publication yesterday.
Both the volume weighted average price and average intraday low prices over the period to be reported upon tomorrow are at nearly 200 point discount to the previous period. Further, the July – A-Index spread is nearly 120 points greater for tomorrow’s report assay period vs the previous assay period.
For tomorrow…
