The front month gave up 22 points today to settle at 93.52. The settlement was within the lower one half of the front month’s 229 point trading range (92.51 – 94.80).
Concerning Dec 14, USDA-published prospective planting survey results could lead to inferred 2014/15 US ending stocks of near 3.5M bales, which, especially at this point of the season, would be very supportive.
For tomorrow, our directional bias for the front month is…
USDA-NASS has announced that prospective cotton plantings within the US for 2014 are 11.1M acres for all cotton and 10.94M for upland cotton. Although 7% higher than last year’s planted acreage, most pre-report estimates published this year have ranged from 11.26M – 11.7M acres. Hence, going forward, we see this as supportive for new crop futures, especially if dryness in west TX persists.
Our pre-report estimate had been published at 11.08M acres.
The old crop bull market continued to forge ahead amid extremely volatile trading conditions this week. The front month picked up 43 points while trading a 751 point range. The results were on par with the conditional prediction we made last week.
In one light it is difficult to imagine the final US cotton ending stocks figure lower than 2010/11’s 2.6M, but, in another light one could see just how it might come to pass.
For the week, our directional bias is…
The front month gained 118 points today to settle at 93.74. The settlement was very near the top of the front month’s 155 point trading range (92.25 – 93.80).
Technically, and fundamentally, it appears that the market still needs to move higher to ration demand of US cotton stocks.
For Mon, our directional bias…
The front month gained 90 points today, post the dissemination of a US cotton export report that inferred a further slight tightening of the US S&D, to settle at 92.56. The settlement was within the lower one half of the front month’s 231 point trading range (91.60 – 93.91). After posting its high overnight May 14 retreated to near its opening value, but never went through it before finally finishing the day in strong fashion.
Technically, the market looks more bull-friendly than it did yesterday, today’s strong finish notwithstanding. Fundamentally…
For tomorrow, our directional bias…
