May 14 surged to a 144 point gain today, post the release of a US export report that was weak with respect to net sales and relatively strong with respect to shipment pace, to settle at 87.81. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s 206 point trading range (86.12 – 88.18).
Technical bias for the front month is, effectively, a mixed bag. And, the fundamental slant offers little more clarity.
For tomorrow…
Net sales of total cotton for the current MY were reported at a MY low of 42K RBs; sales cancellations for the current MY were reported at nearly 60K RBs. Total net sales were just below the per week requirement to meet the USDA’s current US export projection of 10.5M statistical bales.
Shipments were reported at 288.6K RBs for all cotton, a pace that exceeds the per week requirement to meet the USDA’s current export projection, but significantly lower than recent weeks.
While providing evidence that demand has been rationed at price levels above the current market, it is unclear as to what extent the market anticipated today’s report. The initial reaction has not been bearish.
May 14 experienced another strong move lower today, losing another 98 points to settle at 86.37. The settlement was very near the bottom of today’s 169 point trading range (86.25 – 87.95); the daily low was logged during the post-settlement period.
Technical bias for the front month is now somewhat bearish; perhaps more so when considering that the long-standing trend support line near the 87.00 level has been unquestionably broken.
For tomorrow, our directional call for the front month is…
May 14 plunged 195 points today post another day of no delivery notices being issued against Mar 14 to settle at 87.35; the front month traded 275 points off yesterday’s settlement for the intraday low. The settlement was within the lower one half of today’s 302 point trading range (86.55 – 89.57).
Per our expectations, the front month moved lower, but the move was considerably larger than what we expected as stop-loss orders were hit in waves. It is postulated that the inventory of certificated stocks may have helped push the market lower today.
For tomorrow, our directional call for the front month is for…
May 14 gained 95 points today post no delivery notices being issued against Mar 14 to settle at 89.30, the highest settlement for the front month of the current bull move. The settlement was within the upper one half of today’s 253 point trading range (87.91 – 90.44). Today’s high is also the greatest high for the front month during the current bull move.
Technical bias for the front month has turned bullish, per today’s trading action. However, one should note that trading a strictly standard technical position recently has resulted in considerable whipsawing.
For tomorrow, our directional call for the front month is for…
