Archive for October, 2013

Dec. 13 gave up 66 points today, despite better than expected export sales over the most recent three week period ending Oct 24, settling at 77.18. This marked Dec 13’s tenth consecutive day of lower settlement values; Dec 13 once again realized new intraday low and settlement values for the current downtrend. The settlement was near the intraday low of Dec 13’s 198 point range (77.11 – 79.09). Volume quickened a bit today across all active contracts, but was a bit slower for Dec 13, with approximately 20.4K and 39.5K lots traded for Dec 13 and in aggregate, respectively, as funds continued to roll positions. OI decreased on Wednesday for Dec 13 and in aggregate; OI was approximately 100.3K and 196K for Dec 13 and across all active contracts, respectively.

Dec. 13 gave up 50 points today, settling at 77.84. This marked Dec 13’s ninth consecutive day of lower settlement values and as well as new intraday low and settlement values for the current downtrend. The settlement was near the daily low of Dec 13’s 105 point range (77.68 – 78.73). Volume quickened today for Dec 13 as well as across all active contracts, with approximately 21.4K and 31.8K lots traded for Dec 13 and in aggregate, respectively, as funds continued to roll positions. OI decreased on Tuesday for Dec 13 and in aggregate; OI was approximately 106.2K and 202.2K for Dec 13 and across all active contracts, respectively.

For tomorrow, our overall analysis suggests that the most likely directional outcome is a loss on today’s 78.34 settlement. However, we are conditioning our downward bias on the US export report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, Thur, Oct 31 at 8:30 AM, EST.

Dec. 13 gave up 31 points today, settling at 78.34, which is another new low for the current downtrend. The settlement was in the lower one quarter, and very near the daily low (78.29), of Dec 13’s 69 point range (78.29 – 78.98). Volume slowed today for Dec 13 as well as across all active contracts, with approximately 12.7K and 20.4K lots traded for Dec 13 and in aggregate, respectively. OI increased on Monday across all contracts but contracted in Dec 13; OI was approximately 108.1K and 202.9K for Dec 13 and across all active contracts, respectively.

The technical picture for Dec 13 is very bearish. Further, evidence that the US crop harvest continues to lag far behind schedule, data from CNCMMS suggesting that raw cotton consumption in China and increased imports into China are a very real possibility a weakened US dollar have done little to buoy the market.
The Rogers (RICI) fund roll will commence tomorrow and run through Fri, which should add further downward pressure to Dec 13.
The possibility of positive expectations for the US export report, scheduled for release on Thur, Oct 31 could cause some positive price action late in the trading day.

Our outlook period forecast currently suggests that continuation of the current downtrend is the most likely path for Dec 13 in the near-term. Our proprietary conditional probability analysis, for tomorrow, concurs with the Average True Range technical indicator in signaling for decreasing market volatility within Dec 13 trading action tomorrow.

Dec. 13 gave up 43 points today, settling at 78.65, which is a new low for the current downtrend. The settlement was in the lower one quarter, and very near the daily low (78.52), of Dec 13’s 97 point range (78.52 – 79.49). Volume slowed today for Dec 13 as well as across all active contracts, with approximately 14.7K and 22.8K lots traded for Dec 13 and in aggregate, respectively. OI increased on Friday; OI was approximately 108.7K and 202.6K for Dec 13 and across all active contracts, respectively.

Our outlook period forecast currently suggests that a brief consolidation period is the most likely path for Dec 13 in the near-term. Our proprietary conditional probability analysis, for tomorrow, concurs with the Average True Range technical indicator in signaling for decreasing market volatility within Dec 13 trading action tomorrow.

Dec. 13 gave up 13 points today, settling at 79.08. The settlement was in the lower quarter of Dec 13’s 133 point range (78.81 – 80.14), which was largely on the positive side of yesterday’s settlement.
For tomorrow the limit for all ICE cotton futures contracts will again be 300 points.
Volume slowed today for Dec 13 as well as across all active contracts, with approximately 18.3K and 28.1K lots traded for Dec 13 and in aggregate, respectively. OI decreased again on Thursday; OI was approximately 118.3K and 200.1K for Dec 13 and across all active contracts, respectively. Mar 14 gave up 21 points on the day, as it traded within a 130 point range (80.45 – 81.75), the net effect leaving the Dec 13 – Mar 14 spread strengthened slightly at (151) on the day (up 8 points from yesterday).

Our outlook period forecast currently suggests that either continuation of the downtrend or brief consolidation period is the most likely path for Dec 13 in the near-term. Our proprietary conditional probability analysis, for tomorrow, does not concur with the Average True Range technical indicator in signaling for decreasing market volatility within Dec 13 trading action tomorrow.